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Pirates of the East Indies

Sunday, May 27th, 2007

In 2005, [the International Maritime Bureau] recorded 276 [pirate] attempts and attacks. In 2004, there were 329 and in 2003, 445 incidents. The IMB director, Pottengal Mukundan, said many incidents go unreported.

Indonesia, however, continues to be the world’s piracy hotspot, recording 50 attacks in 2006 — a drop from 79 the year before…

On April 16 of this year, 10 speedboats attacked a merchant ship in waters south of Indonesia, but failed to board the vessel. A month earlier, on March 14, in waters about 50 km east of Pulau Bintan, Indonesia, a tanker was not so fortunate when it was attacked by pirates riding two speedboats.

The tanker was boarded by 10 men dressed in camouflage and carrying shotguns, rifles and daggers. The pirates beat the ship’s captain, tied up the crew and blindfolded them before damaging the ship’s communication equipment and stealing cash, crew passports and telephones.

From the cnews.

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Indonesians thank sparingly?

Friday, May 18th, 2007

Indonesians use terima kasih [thank you - RAP] and makasih only sparingly. When someone performs a routine service for someone else, they are often not thanked for it. In such situations, if you feel tempted to say terima kasih, you should try to replace it with some other way of acknowledgement, such as a nod.

Why do they thank sparingly? This seems to be linked to traditional values. Most Indonesians, especially Javanese, have a firm sense of social hierarchy and of status differences. So they are unlikely to thank a person of lower status in many everyday situations as they regard that person to be simply carrying out his or her social obligations.

That is according to Tim Hassall, an ANU’s linguistics expert.

I have no evidence or statistics of any kind to offer (he’d better have), but I do not think Indonesians thank sparingly. I can say that I thank all the time, and so do most people I know of.

I do not buy his claim that most Indonesians “have a firm sense of social hierarchy and of status differences” either. I mean, does he really think Indonesians and, say, Australians are really different on this matter?

What do you think?

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Gloomy forecasters, still

Wednesday, May 16th, 2007

Last year I commented on how gloomy forecasters’ had been on Indonesia’s economic growth. Guess what: They still are.

The average forecast of first quarter growth by a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 12 regional economists is 5.75 percent. The economy actually grows by 6 percent. On average, they miss the target by about 25 percentage points.

So, will all the glooms go away? Maybe not yet. As the good news about Indonesia’s economy continues flowing, however, the forecasters would have to eventually turn about face.

I mean, it would embarrassing for them to consistently underestimate the strength of Indonesia’s economy, right?

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Indonesia’s giant state firms

Tuesday, May 15th, 2007

Of the almost 140 companies that are majority-owned by the government, only 12 have been listed on the [Jakarta Stock Exchange]. However, these 12 account for nearly 37 percent… of total market capitalization…

That’s how dominant these few state-owned enterprises have been in the Indonesia’s stock market. The three largest are PT Telkom Indonesia, Bank BRI, and Bank Mandiri, which account for 28 percent of the market capitalization.

From the Jakarta Post’s editorial, calling the government to privatize other state-owned firms.

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Foxes ruled Indonesia’s financial chicken coop

Monday, May 7th, 2007

[The deregulation of Indonesia's banking sector in the 1980s and 1990s] “opened the floodgates for local crony conglomerates to set up private banks and take in deposits from a trusting public.”

With no rule of law, there was no oversight and no supervision, he said.

“The foxes were running wild in the financial chicken coop and no one, …pressured the Indonesians to design safeguards to protect the public’s deposits,” he said. One result was the 1997-98 financial crisis “that plunged tens of millions into abject poverty.”

That’s Jeffrey Winters of Northwestern University’s take on Indonesia’s banking deregulation. The language, it is a bit too colorful for my taste. And, don’t you think his assessment is over the top?

By the way, Winters is commenting on World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz role as U.S. ambassador to Indonesia in the 1980s.

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Wages had not changed much?

Thursday, May 3rd, 2007

It’s Labor Day. Workers claim that wages had not changed much. Which begs the question: compared to what?

Real wages in Indonesia (BPS)

Statistics of average real wages (total industri in the graph above) shows that since the 1998 crisis, real wages have been increasing at more than 7 percent per year, which double the real wages in 10-year time.

However, compared to the pre-crisis peak of real wages in 1997, current real wages are only about 20 percent higher, which may explain workers’ claim. Moreover, in the last two years, real wages have been stagnating, if not declining.

And labors, of course, are not created equal. Cigarette factory workers (industri rokok) and garment workers (industri pakaian jadi) are among the winners, while ceramic workers (industri batu bata, ubin) are the losers.

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The rich are getting richer?

Thursday, April 26th, 2007

The “trends in top incomes does not suggest that there has been a sustained long-term increase in income inequality in Indonesia”, Andrew Leigh and Pierre van der Eng conclude in a recent working paper.

In short, as Indonesia’s economy grows, the rich do get richer. But so do the poor.

Income Share of the Top 10% in Indonesia (Figure 2 in the paper)

Hence, in the last two decades, the income share of the 10 percent richest remains pretty much the same, in the 35%-40% range.

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GDP per capita of US$18,000 by 2030?

Tuesday, April 24th, 2007

That’s the target of Indonesia Forum Foundation’s ‘Indonesia Vision 2030′, which requires Indonesia’s economy to grow by 7.26 percent annually.

Not an impossible goal, to say the least.

Indonesia’s GDP per Capita

More likely though, Indonesia’s economy would grow by about five percent per year so that GDP per capita PPP at constant 2000 international $ in 2030 will be about $12,000 (the red dotted line).

That would be quite excellent in itself, though, of course, the government could “easily” increase economic growth further.

Such as, by shredding some paper forms and closing some offices.

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Indonesia in pictures: Bright future

Tuesday, April 17th, 2007

The bright future of Indonesia © thebigdurian

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Balanced-budget zealotry no more?

Tuesday, April 10th, 2007

For 2008 next year, Indonesia assumes an economic growth target of 6.8% and a Budget deficit of 1.7% of GDP said Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani…

In 2007, however, the government’s budget deficit is expected to expand from 1.1% of GDP (or Rp. 40.5 trillion) to between 1.2% to 2% (or an estimated Rp. 60 trillion to Rp. 65 trillion), whereas government’s revenue is expected to reach Rp. 723.1 trillion, and government spending Rp. 763.6 trillion.

This increase was caused by added government spending to assist and recover from the many natural disasters, as well as the increased payments on subsidies carried over from last year. Over the past three years, spending by government agencies has continuously increased, and it is hoped that with increased government spending this will accelerate economic growth, reported Bisnis Indonesia.

That looks like a sensible policy. Perhaps, we can say that gone are the days of balanced-budget zealotry.

From Wuryastuti Sunario’s Indonesia Digest.

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