Posts Tagged ‘teknik’

Strategic sale works

Sunday, August 12th, 2007

We examine the effect of strategic sale—the sale of banks to strategic foreign investors—on banks’ performance. The Government of Indonesia implemented such a policy as a part of bank restructuring in the aftermath of the 1998 banking crisis. Using difference-in-difference models, we find that strategic sale leads to 12%-15% cost reduction. These results are robust to the use of other estimators such as difference-in-difference matching-estimators and stochastic-frontier analysis, to that of other performance measures such as return on assets and net interest margin, and also to that of different types of samples. These suggest that strategic sale could play an important role in restructuring troubled banks in developing countries.

In short, the sale of Indonesian banks to strategic foreign investors a couple of years ago is a good thing.

That’s from a recent working paper by Parinduri and Riyanto.

Indonesia’s interest rate anomaly?

Saturday, July 14th, 2007

“…[there is] an anomaly between the BI benchmark rate and bank deposit interest rates in Indonesia at present,” the central bank governor [Burhanudin Abdullah] told the House of Representatives Financial Commission at a hearing which began Thursday evening and lasted Friday.

He said the anomaly lay in the fact that the BI rate (8.25 percent) was higher than the bank deposit rate of 5 percent.

“The BI benchmark rate should have been lower than the bank deposit interest rate,” he added.

He may can call it an anomaly, but the higher Bank Indonesia benchmark rate is central bank’s own policy choice.

It is the consequence of central bank’s obsession to lower inflation rate by setting excessively high interest rate.

Semi-hiatus

Saturday, June 16th, 2007

Regular readers may observe that I have been on unofficial semi-hiatus for the last couple of months. Unfortunately, now I need to have a long hiatus, perhaps for the rest of this year.

Stop by once every few months, though; I may write one post or two.

In the meantime, you can browse my categories of posts and archives, which are available in the sidebar.

The amazing comeback of Asian economies

Wednesday, May 30th, 2007

Economic recoveries are surprisingly fast, though I still believe that, if IMF did not require too tight fiscal and monetary policies, Indonesia’s economic growth could have been even higher.

Economic Growth Rates

From Takatoshi Ito’s paper on Asian Crisis; via Dani Rodrik’s weblog.

Pirates of the East Indies

Sunday, May 27th, 2007

In 2005, [the International Maritime Bureau] recorded 276 [pirate] attempts and attacks. In 2004, there were 329 and in 2003, 445 incidents. The IMB director, Pottengal Mukundan, said many incidents go unreported.

Indonesia, however, continues to be the world’s piracy hotspot, recording 50 attacks in 2006 — a drop from 79 the year before…

On April 16 of this year, 10 speedboats attacked a merchant ship in waters south of Indonesia, but failed to board the vessel. A month earlier, on March 14, in waters about 50 km east of Pulau Bintan, Indonesia, a tanker was not so fortunate when it was attacked by pirates riding two speedboats.

The tanker was boarded by 10 men dressed in camouflage and carrying shotguns, rifles and daggers. The pirates beat the ship’s captain, tied up the crew and blindfolded them before damaging the ship’s communication equipment and stealing cash, crew passports and telephones.

From the cnews.

Indonesians thank sparingly?

Friday, May 18th, 2007

Indonesians use terima kasih [thank you - RAP] and makasih only sparingly. When someone performs a routine service for someone else, they are often not thanked for it. In such situations, if you feel tempted to say terima kasih, you should try to replace it with some other way of acknowledgement, such as a nod.

Why do they thank sparingly? This seems to be linked to traditional values. Most Indonesians, especially Javanese, have a firm sense of social hierarchy and of status differences. So they are unlikely to thank a person of lower status in many everyday situations as they regard that person to be simply carrying out his or her social obligations.

That is according to Tim Hassall, an ANU’s linguistics expert.

I have no evidence or statistics of any kind to offer (he’d better have), but I do not think Indonesians thank sparingly. I can say that I thank all the time, and so do most people I know of.

I do not buy his claim that most Indonesians “have a firm sense of social hierarchy and of status differences” either. I mean, does he really think Indonesians and, say, Australians are really different on this matter?

What do you think?

Gloomy forecasters, still

Wednesday, May 16th, 2007

Last year I commented on how gloomy forecasters’ had been on Indonesia’s economic growth. Guess what: They still are.

The average forecast of first quarter growth by a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 12 regional economists is 5.75 percent. The economy actually grows by 6 percent. On average, they miss the target by about 25 percentage points.

So, will all the glooms go away? Maybe not yet. As the good news about Indonesia’s economy continues flowing, however, the forecasters would have to eventually turn about face.

I mean, it would embarrassing for them to consistently underestimate the strength of Indonesia’s economy, right?

Indonesia’s giant state firms

Tuesday, May 15th, 2007

Of the almost 140 companies that are majority-owned by the government, only 12 have been listed on the [Jakarta Stock Exchange]. However, these 12 account for nearly 37 percent… of total market capitalization…

That’s how dominant these few state-owned enterprises have been in the Indonesia’s stock market. The three largest are PT Telkom Indonesia, Bank BRI, and Bank Mandiri, which account for 28 percent of the market capitalization.

From the Jakarta Post’s editorial, calling the government to privatize other state-owned firms.

Foxes ruled Indonesia’s financial chicken coop

Monday, May 7th, 2007

[The deregulation of Indonesia's banking sector in the 1980s and 1990s] “opened the floodgates for local crony conglomerates to set up private banks and take in deposits from a trusting public.”

With no rule of law, there was no oversight and no supervision, he said.

“The foxes were running wild in the financial chicken coop and no one, …pressured the Indonesians to design safeguards to protect the public’s deposits,” he said. One result was the 1997-98 financial crisis “that plunged tens of millions into abject poverty.”

That’s Jeffrey Winters of Northwestern University’s take on Indonesia’s banking deregulation. The language, it is a bit too colorful for my taste. And, don’t you think his assessment is over the top?

By the way, Winters is commenting on World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz role as U.S. ambassador to Indonesia in the 1980s.

Wages had not changed much?

Thursday, May 3rd, 2007

It’s Labor Day. Workers claim that wages had not changed much. Which begs the question: compared to what?

Real wages in Indonesia (BPS)

Statistics of average real wages (total industri in the graph above) shows that since the 1998 crisis, real wages have been increasing at more than 7 percent per year, which double the real wages in 10-year time.

However, compared to the pre-crisis peak of real wages in 1997, current real wages are only about 20 percent higher, which may explain workers’ claim. Moreover, in the last two years, real wages have been stagnating, if not declining.

And labors, of course, are not created equal. Cigarette factory workers (industri rokok) and garment workers (industri pakaian jadi) are among the winners, while ceramic workers (industri batu bata, ubin) are the losers.